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Our certain future

I am constantly amazed.  Not only that.  I seem to be constantly amazed at things that happen … well …  constantly.  You’d think that seeing something over and over and over would eventually wear you down and erode wonder, awe and amazement.  Not for simple minded people like me.  I sit back and watch people do the same silly thing over and over.  And I say to myself, “wow!” … “that is amazing!”

What the heck am I talking about?

It is the audacious certainty with which people predict the future.

toy2r-emilio-garcia-jumping-brain-toyAnd I’m not talking the simple stuff.  Things like, “if you don’t brush your teeth will rot.”  Or, “if you constantly lie eventually people won’t trust you.”  Or, “if you’re disciplined and sacrifice today you can reap the benefits tomorrow.”  That is the simple stuff … the natural and predictable consequences to simple actions.

No, I’m talking about situations that are hopelessly complex, that have multivariate and fast changing events, that computers the size of Big Blue could never figure out.

But here we are with our little 3 lb brains and not only have we figured it all out (and well into the next decade no less!) … but we do so with  absolute, unapologetic and unqualified certainty.

This is more than just the “half full vs. half empty” syndrome.    It is not a question of style, character, or even slant.  It is the ability of people to see the same data, the same information, the same images, the same facts and draw opposite conclusions with the certainty of the sun coming up tomorrow.

Welcome to the health care debate.

  • It will decrease the deficit.   And it will raise the deficit.
  • It will increase abortions.  It will decrease abortions.
  • It will help business.  It will hurt business.

The Wall Street Journal says that health care reform is leading to the “wholesale destruction of wealth and capital.”  The White House says it simply is closing a loophole.  According to one Congressman the health care reform will lead to more aborted babies.  According to Bart Stupak nothing changes.  According to columnist and commentator Fred Hiatt health care reform is a ‘fiscal catastrophe.’  According to a former official of the Congressional  Budget Office, Mr. DeWater, it will reduce the deficit.

No wonder the media reports that the average American is confused.  The so-called ‘experts’ are not only disagreeing.  They are violently disagreeing with even more violent confidence and conviction.

I suspect that the average American isn’t as much confused as he or she is simply recognizing the simple fact that all the “experts” ignore.  We just don’t know exactly what is going to happen.  There’s some good.  There’s some bad.  There’s some risk.  There’s some opportunity.

But we just don’t know.  None of us do.

In many ways the health care reform package is a lot like life.  It is hard to know what the future holds.

So what do you do?  You go back to those simple, historically proven, reliable things you can depend on.

Like brushing (and flossing!) so your teeth don’t rot.  And telling the truth so you can earn someone’s trust and confidence.  And working hard and sacrificing today so you and your family can benefit some day down the road.

As for the other stuff, it would be refreshing if someone said what everyone else has already figured out:

“Who knows?”

The stupidity of crowds

Let me start by saying (a) that I am a fan of James Surowiecki and enjoy his writing and insight; and (b) I think he has a point in his ‘wisdom of crowds‘ thing.

Heck, the whole idea of democracy is based somewhat on the premise that large groups of ordinary folks can exhibit common wisdom.  As Lincoln once said, “God must have loved the common man … he made so many of them!”  I know that some of you read this and think of the current political environment and might conclude otherwise but over the long term democracy has served us … ok, it has served most of us … quite well thank you.

But the cold reality is that crowds can also be stupid.  Very stupid.  And crowds are particularly stupid when then face things that they find foreign, strange, and uncomfortable.

8527stupid-people-postersA recent case in point.  The Mississippi school district that canceled their senior prom rather than allow a lesbian to attend in a tuxedo with her girlfriend.  Yup.  You read that right.  Grown adults so afraid of a teen age lesbian couple that they canceled prom night.

I don’t think it matters what you think about gays and lesbians.  And I don’t think it matters what you think about teenage gays and lesbians.  You may believe it normal and a sign of a maturing, evolving culture.  Or you may find it unnatural and a sign of society going to hell in a handbasket.  Or somewhere in between.  Doesn’t matter.

That a school district would cancel prom over fears that kids might see two girls making out is just stupid.  Don’t Mom and Dad know that their children have already seen that and more on Fox?  Do they think that if they cancel prom gays and lesbians will disappear?  That their children won’t get ‘infected’?  Don’t they realize that this lesbian couple is already in their children’s high school?  That rather than make this go away that it shoves it in everyone’s face.

Crowds do bizarre stupid things when faced with cultural fears.

I know first hand growing up in Jefferson Parish Louisiana in the 1970s.  I attended a public high school that was ALL boys.  Yup.  Public school.  All boys.  Why?  Because after desegregation some of the white parents – let’s call them a crowd of white parents at the time – figured that while they may have to accept that their white children will have to go to school with blacks, they could make sure that their white girls won’t have to mingle with black boys!

And that was that.  High school was divided into all boys and all girls schools.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

Conclusion?  Crowds can be dumb.  And it isn’t hard to find examples (can anyone say … housing bubble?).  So look around.  What crowds are you hanging out with?  What are they doing?  Occasionally they can be wise.  But they can just as easily be stupid.

Chart your own course.

Super Bowl Sunday – Geaux Saints!

I have to credit this to my brother, Jim.  This was the letter he sent to folks at his firm.  I did a short write through and sent to folks at my firm.

Dear Friends of the JuiceBar,

I grew up in New Orleans.

imagesOur family had season tickets for the first years of Saints existence.  My dad took me to the very first Saints game in 1967.  I was 11 years old.  Tulane Stadium.  The Los Angeles Rams kicked off.  Rookie wide receiver John Gilliam caught the ball and ran the kickoff back for a touchdown!  A touchdown!  Our very first play.

Saints then went on to lose 13 to 27.  It has been downhill ever since.

I have been a Saints fan for over 40 years and experienced only 9 winning seasons.

Having the Saints in the SuperBowl is a surreal and a bit delirious.

As you also know, New Orleans citizens look for any reason to party.  The song Stand up and Get Crunk is being blasted out of speakers all across the ‘Nawlins’.  Regardless of tonight’s outcome, I encourage you to stream it, download it and play it on Sunday evening.  Don’t forget the volume. If you feel inspired, do a little dance with beer in hand in tribute to those who have suffered for so long.

Know that you’ll be joining every New Orleanian in the country – whether they’re in the Crescent City or not – whether the Saints win tonight or not …

“Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulez”.

Geaux Saints!

Experts, commentators, and streams

I have long maintained that the biggest asset of any individual, brand or organization is ALWAYS is also its greatest liability.

Really.  I really say this.  A lot.

Don’t believe me?  Just ask folks that work with me.

twitter_birdSo now the rage in social media is “streaming.”  That is not what I’m doing now.  I’m blogging.  And now I find out that blogging is passe.  Twitter stream.  Facebook stream.  Posterous.

Experts say blogging is so … “slow and methodical.”‘

We don’t want that!  What we need today is “fast and chaotic.”

While fast and chaotic may indeed be a more accurate reflection of everyday life … allowing a constantly changing free exchange of thoughts and information … there’s always a dark side.

For a funny but insightful look at this dark side I strongly encourage you to read Ed Docx’s article Twittering Fools, in the Utne Reader, reprinted from Prospect.

Tired of the mindless commentary from ordinary people who have less knowledge and expertise about subjects than my three-year-old grandson, he writes:

I don’t care what Andy from Cheadle thinks about the Gaza Strip, the ice caps, Manchester City, or even Cheadle. Nobody cares. Nobody except Andy, and presumably he already knows. When I turn on the radio or the television, or when I open a book or a newspaper, what I want is an expert. I want insightful commentary. I want stylistic elegance. I want eloquence. I want uninterrupted expertise.

And that’s the dark side of all the social media wackiness out there.  I’d just as soon my life not be a Joycean stream of consciousness.  Given everything going on out there I’m getting more and more attracted to things being a bit slower, a bit more methodical.

“Streams”.  Stream this.  Stream that.

But you’ve got to ask … streams of what?

Experts and commentators

I work in a field that is awash with experts.  Indeed, seems there are more experts in what I do,  than people.

I’m talking about social media but I probably could be talking about anything.

expertsRoderick Low posted a good summary of the dilemma (along with some good prescriptions) in which he cites the blog Broadstuff that noted given current growth projections …

“by 2012, we would have as many as 30 million ’social media experts’ plying their trade globally.”

Wow.  30 million experts.  That is a lot of experts.  I wonder who they will be working for.

In fact, based on what I see a good percentage of today’s experts don’t have clients.  What are we going to do with all these experts?

Which brings me the second area of job title explosion:  commentators.

With all the new media out there we’ve got more than you can shake a stick at.  Actually a lot of them you’d just as soon hit with a stick not just shake it at them.  But given the explosion of everyday commentators you’d only end up playing “whack-a-mole” (how is that for tortured stream of conscious imagery?)

Just one thing about those commentators.  A lot of them never really have had any direct experience in what they are commenting on.  This is particularly true in politics.  Have Rush Limbaugh or Keith Oberman ever run for office?  Ever worked in government?  Ever practiced constitutional law?  No but they sure can comment on it all.

Experts with no clients … commentators with no experience.

Here’s a suggestion.  We follow our brethren in sports.  Watch a football show.  Maybe one or two laymen but they are always teamed up with former coaches and players — that is, people who have actually had experience in doing what they are commenting on.

Experts who actually do work.  Commentators who actually know from experience what they are talking about.

What a concept.

What’s Your Dream?

There’s a nightmare in Haiti.  But it is not really a nightmare.  Because when you wake up it is still there.  And it gets worse.  It will be there tomorrow and the next day and the next.  Many people are trying to help.  But what happened quickly won’t be undone quickly.

That is the rub of life.  Disaster often strikes quickly.  Recovery always takes time.

I-Have-a-Dream---Martin-Luther-King--C10120871Today amidst all the tragedy we celebrate the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.

Why?

Because while he lived in the nightmare of segregation and prejudice, he also worked towards the dream of a world without it.

Because having the dream was only half the battle.  Keeping it.  Holding fast to it.  Making it part of who you are.  Incorporating it into your waking up and going to sleep.  Never letting go.  Never letting up.  Always standing firm even when people spurn and ridicule.

And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream.

It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.”

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.  I have a dream today!

I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of “interposition” and “nullification” — one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers.  I have a dream today!

I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, and every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight; “and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed and all flesh shall see it together.”

Thank you Reverend King.

Now.

What’s your dream?

Happy New Year 2010: Now where are we?

Happy New Year 2010 from the JuiceBar.

The close of the year is a season that defines the phrase … “well it is that time of year again!”  There’s the travel.  The dinners.  The family.  The gifts.  The visits.  The cards.  The calls.

But most of all, the changing of the calendars is one of resolutions and predictions.

Resolutions and predictions.  They define the word Sisyphean.

sisyphusHow many people have actually kept one or more New Year’s resolutions?

What?  You say you have?  Well God bless you.  You are the needle in the haystack, the exception that proves the rule, the lightening that struck twice.

Do us all a favor, won’t you?  How about commenting on this blog and providing some guidance on how that is actually done.  It will give you a chance to help someone.  And it will give all of us resolution weaklings a person to loath besides ourselves.

But enough about resolutions.  How about those predictions?

I’m always amazed at people’s predictions.  We laugh at Madame Soleil but invariably engage in the exact same kind of mindless speculation as the late astrologist and psychic.

And how many predictions have actually come true?  Based on my experience not many.  I confess to having succumbed to the Sirens of prediction in the past.  I spent mindless hours predicting all sorts of stuff.  Predicting is very seductive.  Who wouldn’t be attracted by the pull of being the secular prophet warning the huddled masses of the great works that God has in store for them?

How strong is the prediction impulse?  Well whenever I want to figure out the answer to questions like that I do what millions of other people do.    I “Google” it.

Google “predictions 2010” and among the 8 million entries is the British newspaper The Telegraph predicting the rise of 3D television.  That doesn’t bode well for our house which still lacks a flat panel display, a DVR and Blue Ray.  There’s a ton of predictions by the media about the media.  Newsweek predicts that someone will die on a reality TV program.  I thought that actually had already happened but clearly I’m not current.  Then there were the predictions of Folio’s experts which included one from Paul Armstrong that “overall, the media will still continue to die, shrivel, morph, whatever—it no longer matters.”  I look closer and see that Armstrong’s Twitter handle is @themediaisdying.  Always good to predict something that you’ve already declared is happening.  The ReadWriteWeb predicts “the death of the login”.  I hope that includes the death of usernames and passwords.  Mark Drapeau predicts in O’Reilly Radar of something he calls “ubiquitous crude video content.”  I thought we already had that.  It is called “porn.”  And there were predictions about the economy.  According to the National Inflation Association a “huge crash in the U.S. dollar could occur at any time”.

I feel better now.

The Wall Street Journal’s predictions bordered on the religious when, in its tenth prediction (why are there always ten?) it boldly declares “the world will not end.”  Speaking of , even the Catholic Church got in the 2010 prediction business.  You’d think that they’d have enough on their hands in managing the book of Revelation.

Predictions.  Predictions.  Predictions.

So much time thinking about so many things that we have very little control over.

Here is my anticdote from year-end predictionitis.

We should spend as much time trying to figure out where WE are NOW as we spend on where OTHER people WILL BE in the future.  As Shakespear wrote (I think) “the only thing harder than diamonds is to know thyself.”  If we spent more time taking an honest inventory of where we are we’d be alot more equipped to know what things we need to do to get us where we want to be.

Reminds me of the great line …

Know how to make God laugh?

Tell him your plans.

Or tell him your predictions.



A Christmas Season

You know it is Christmas at the home of Jerry’s Juice Bar when …

Every chair is occupied and every space on the leather couch is taken.  And somewhere amidst the chairs and couches someone has dozed off … usually on the leather couch.

95_2760There is a constant boiling of water for coffee, hum of the dishwasher readying for the next meal, and the sound of someone, somewhere taking a shower, and the picking up of someone’s “stuff”.

Friendly but foreign animals roam from person to person searching for a handout or just a hand that will pet a forehead or scratch an ear.

There’s a mountain of paper waste, boxes, wrappings, turkey carcasses, tins and coffee grounds overflowing the sole garbage can in the back yard.

At any given time someone is sitting and reading, someone is on the computer, someone is watching television, someone is either going or preparing to go, and someone is coming back.

And me?

I get quiet.  I reflect.  I smile.  I wish for things that could be.  And am happy for things that are.

Merry Christmas to all.

Happiness sucks

Some time ago, psychologists discovered that “grump old men” are smarter than other old men.

Grumpy9Specifically, a report released several years ago suggested “that a disagreeable nature goes hand in hand with advanced vocabulary and general knowledge in old age,” the researchers write.

The older you get, the better you are if you are grumpy.

Welcome to my world.

that is why I’m fascinated with a new book by Barbara Ehrenreich entitled:  “Bright-Sided:  How the relentless promotion of positive thinking has undermined America.”

According to a review in the NYTimes, Ehrenriech claims that positive thinking is “just another way for the conservative, corporate culture to wring the most out of its workers.”

According to Robert Gathman in the Austin-American Statesman, “journalist Barbara Ehrenreich mounts a spirited attack on the American culture of positive thinking, arguing that the mass manufacture of feel-good palliatives, by encouraging sloppy reasoning, shortsighted habits and a curiously uncritical identification with the powers that be, is doing more harm than good.”

Feel-good stuff is sloppy.  No pain, no gain my friend!

The problem with happiness — we were guaranteed the right to pursue it in our constitution — is that it is a pretty shallow pool to swim in.

Whatever happened to pursuing truth, justice, peace?  Now there’s something worth living for.

I would have finished the above with “the American way” but that would lead us back to the happiness thing.

Be smart.  Be grumpy.

And have a happy day.

When you just want their earpiece explode inside their head.

I was going to write about swine flu schizophrenia.  But I’m here at D15 at Dulles and have to plead with everyone out there with a cell phone and an ear piece having long and loud conversations with no one in particular while in a crowded public place.

SHUT UP!

imagesAnd if you find a tall guy with a blue blazer, Landsdowne baseball cap, rumpled dark paints who at some point today will be in San Antonio, do everyone a favor and rip the earpiece out of his ear, grab his BlackBerry and throw it in the nearest toilet.

Flush twice.

This morning at 7:30 am I’m going through security at Dulles.  Not the new underground security but the one by baggage claim for “executive” travelers.  I’m just handing my boarding pass to the TSA officer (who was pleasantly pleasant) and all the sudden I HEAR THIS GUY RAMBLING ABOUT HIS MEETING SCHEDULE.  I turn and look.  There’s a tall guy behind me — I never got his name — staring off into space and talking as if the person on the other end of the phone is on the other side of security … and as if neither I nor anyone else in line is there.  I roll my eyes.  But this guy hasn’t a clue.  He goes on, and on, and on.

He doesn’t even hang up going through security!  Apparently you can put a person hon hold, run your cell phone through the security screen, and still have the other person on the line when you pick up the phone on the other end.  This is just wrong.

I’m hoping I can lose this guy, but I can’t.  I’m on the people mover to Concourse D.  Pleasant silence.  Then I BEGIN TO HEAR HIM AGAIN.  I learn about his meetings.  That he’s going to RTP next week.  Washington DC the week after.  The meetings with Steve Hackett.  That Nan will set it up.  That Dave and Matt are good guys.  Micheal is a jerk.  BUT I HEAR ABOUT ALL THIS LIKE THIS.   I’M IN A PEOPLE MOVER.  I CAN’T GET OUT.

The people mover docks and I’m hoping I can lose this guy but I need some java.  There’s a Starbucks on the immediate left of the landing.  Silence.  Blessed silence.  NOW HE’S BACK.   ANOTHER CALL.  PLEASE MAKE IT STOP!

What a way to start a day.

So again, if you have the urge to talk on the phone in crowded, public places PLEASE do everyone a favor.

Don’t.